Ahead of the Nigerian 2027 general elections, a Political analyst, Segun Sowunmi, has dismissed the chances of any strong opposition in the form of ADC’s Atiku Abubakar or NDC’s Peter Obi for incumbent President Bola Tinubu.
He predicted that the incumbent president, Bola Tinubu, would win the next presidential election overwhelmingly.
Sowunmi, speaking in Lagos, said Tinubu will do better than in the 2023 elections given his wider electoral reach and firmer grip on key battlegrounds.
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The former presidential campaign spokesman projected that Tinubu could win 22 states as political alignments, shifting loyalties, and the recalibration of regional power blocs reshape the contest.
According to Sowunmi, Tinubu might significantly improve his performance in the Southeast, consolidate his hold on the Southwest, strengthen his footing in the South-South, and make fresh gains in parts of the North-Central and Northwest.
“The president is going to win significantly better numbers in the Southeast because those are not places they usually get better numbers,” he said.
Sowunmi added that the Southsouth could deliver stronger support to Tinubu than the Southeast, depending on how political developments in the oil-rich region unfold.
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He also predicted that Tinubu would perform strongly in the North Central and improve on his 2023 showing in the Northwest, where the roles of governors, political heavyweights, and strategic stakeholders could prove decisive.
Sowunmi cited Katsina as one of the states where the opposition might no longer enjoy the same leverage it had in 2023, recalling that figures in former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s camp helped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secure the state during the last presidential election.
He noted that the political equation in Katsina has since changed, with some of those influential actors no longer occupying the same strategic positions they held then.
Sowunmi made similar observations about Kano, saying fresh alignments among major political actors and influential local stakeholders could alter the state’s voting direction next year.
Despite his upbeat projection, he acknowledged that Tinubu could still face headwinds in parts of the North.
“Where I expect the president to be weak is probably in the North,” he said, insisting that his projection was based on a close reading of political structures, regional power blocs and emerging alliances across the country.
He maintained, however, that Tinubu remained favourably positioned ahead of the 2027 election and could win about 22 states if current trends persist.
