Nigeria’s total public debt has crossed N159 trillion, yet for the first time in more than a decade the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is falling.
The Nigeria Revenue Service said the ratio dropped from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025, and then to 32.3 per cent in 2026. The decline means the economy grew faster than borrowing, so debt now takes up a smaller share of output.
In an internal report, the NRS said the shift shows the economy is “moving decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.” It credited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda for the turnaround, calling the reforms painful but necessary.
The NRS said the administration inherited four major distortions: an unaffordable fuel subsidy, an opaque foreign exchange system, underperforming oil production, and a weak tax base. Addressing them, it added, has eased pressure on finances. Debt servicing as a share of revenue is projected to fall from 68 per cent to 53 per cent, according to IMF data cited by the NRS.
Other indicators have also improved. External reserves rose to $51.9 billion in July 2026, a 17-year high, from $3.99 billion in 2023.
The balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in Q1 2026. Trade swung to a surplus of N7.55 trillion in Q1 2026, and capital importation jumped to $23.22 billion in 2025 from $3.9 billion in 2023.
Tax revenue more than doubled to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, supported by digitisation and four new tax laws. Oil output rose to 1.73 million barrels per day, 104 per cent of OPEC quota. The Nigerian Exchange’s market capitalisation climbed from N30.36 trillion to N161 trillion.
The NRS cautioned that gains in agriculture and jobs will take time to fully materialize, but said the data point to an economy past its toughest period.
