Nigeria’s economy is holding steady near recent highs, with OPEC pointing to improved macroeconomic stability, steady crude production and ongoing reforms as key drivers of expansion in 2026.
In its latest country assessment, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Nigeria’s gross domestic product grew 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. That is just a notch below the 4.0 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, a sign that momentum has largely been sustained.
Non-oil sectors lead the charge
OPEC said the non-oil economy remained the main engine of growth. Agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, and the finance and insurance sub-sectors all contributed, while higher oil output helped boost government revenues, foreign exchange inflows and external buffers.
Private-sector activity also continued to expand, though at a slightly slower pace. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 52.5 in July from 53.4 in June and 54.1 in May.
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It was the weakest reading since March, but it still marked six straight months of improvement.
Firms reported stronger new orders, supported by better customer demand, improved pricing and new product launches. Output and employment rose modestly during the month, according to the survey.
Refining and inflation
OPEC highlighted the impact of higher domestic refining capacity. With operations ramping up at the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, local supply of petrol and other products has increased. The organisation said this should help energy availability and ease some of the pressure from petroleum imports.
“Higher domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote refinery, should continue to support energy availability and reduce some import-related pressures,” OPEC stated.
On prices, inflation showed tentative signs of cooling. Headline inflation held at 15.9 per cent year-on-year in both May and June. The July PMI also pointed to softening input costs, even as fuel and raw material expenses remained elevated.
Outlook
Looking ahead, OPEC expects Nigeria’s near-term outlook to remain positive. It cited steady oil production, continued reform progress, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity as supports for further growth.
