A supercomputer has predicted, after the simulation was run 10,000 times, that the World Cup model finally decided that the correct team to back for FIFA’s 2026 extravaganza is France.
That’s right, just days before we kick off in the USA, Mexico, and Canada, it is Les Blues who have been named as the predicted winners of the tournament by a supercomputer, hoisting the trophy aloft at MetLife Stadium on July 19.
Supercomputer does 10,000 simulations then predicts World Cup 2026 champion: where does your team finish?
The model, produced by betting comparison website FindSisterSites, gives France a 51.5% chance of winning the final itself and a 14.2% chance of winning the tournament overall. That would make it a second World Cup title in eight years for France, after their 2018 triumph and their penalty shootout defeat to Argentina in the 2022 final.
France is expected to win another World Cup
For England, the prediction points to another brutal near-miss. Thomas Tuchel’s side are projected to top Group L and then make a statement run through the knockout rounds, beating Brazil in the quarter-finals and Argentina in the semi-finals before falling to France in the final.
The United States is also tipped for a strong tournament on home soil. Mauricio Pochettino’s team are predicted to reach the quarter-finals, beating Senegal and Belgium before losing to European champions Spain.
The USMNT is projected to be the last host nation standing. Mexico is expected to reach the round of 16 before losing to England, while Canada is also tipped to exit at that stage against the Netherlands.
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Argentina’s title defense is predicted to end in the semi-finals against England, in what could be Lionel Messi’s final World Cup. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, meanwhile, are projected to lose to Argentina in a heavyweight quarter-final.
Scotland, however, is not expected to escape the group stage. The model predicts Steve Clarke’s team will beat Haiti in their opener, but still fall short of the round of 32. Same old story for the wonderful Tartan Army then.
How the World Cup supercomputer works. The supercomputer is described as a probability model rather than a human prediction. It estimates each fixture using team strength, international ranking, recent form, and betting market odds.
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The tournament is then simulated 10,000 times, with the final projection built from the average of those simulations to reduce the effect of one-off freak results.
Here is the full list of knockout predictions:
Round of 32
Match 1: South Korea v Canada
Match 2: Brazil v Japan
Match 3: Germany v Sweden
Match 4: Netherlands v Morocco
Match 5: Ecuador v Norway
Match 6: France v Iran
Match 7: Mexico v Ivory Coast
Match 8: England v Uzbekistan
Match 9: Belgium v Saudi Arabia
Match 10: USA v Senegal
Match 11: Spain v Austria
Match 12: Colombia v Croatia
Match 13: Switzerland v Algeria
Match 14: Turkey v Egypt
Match 15: Argentina v Uruguay
Match 16: Portugal v Ghana
Round of 16
Match 1: Canada v Netherlands
Match 2: Germany v France
Match 3: Brazil v Norway
Match 4: Mexico v England
Match 5: Colombia v Spain
Match 6: USA v Belgium
Match 7: Argentina v Turkey
Match 8: Switzerland v Portugal
Quarter-Finals
QF 1: France v Netherlands
QF 2: Spain v USA
QF 3: Brazil v England
QF 4: Argentina v Portugal
Semi-Finals
SF 1: France v Spain
SF 2: England v Argentina
Final
France v England
Winner: France (51.5% probability – 14.2% probability overall)
